冠通期货：PVC：低开震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to decline with oscillations due to high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and a lack of substantial policy support. The current fundamentals of the PVC industry face significant pressure, and the主力 contract has switched to the 01 contract with a low basis [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 期现行情 - The PVC2601 contract opened lower, increased positions, and oscillated. It reached a low of 4,869 yuan/ton, a high of 4,918 yuan/ton, and closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.14% increase. The open interest increased by 6,574 lots to 1,206,310 lots [2]. 基差方面 - On September 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,680 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 198 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton. The basis is at a low level [3]. 基本面跟踪 - Supply: The operating rates of some plants such as Zhongtai Huatai and Ningbo Zhenyang decreased. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.59 percentage points to 76.02% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production in August, Tianjin Bohua's expected stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year planned trial runs in September [1][4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The sales area, new construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week ending August 31, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 11.64% week - on - week but was still near the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 28, PVC social inventory increased by 5.10% week - on - week to 896,300 tons, 0.66% less than the same period last year. Social inventory continued to rise and remained at a high level [1][6].