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Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is mainly oscillating, with short - term attention on the pressure level of 1754 yuan/ton and medium - term attention on the oscillation range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton. The upcoming Indian NFL company's 200 - million - ton urea import tender will affect the domestic market sentiment. The demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a strong oscillation. The trading activity in the recent market is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to summer equipment overhauls and environmental protection restrictions caused by the military parade in early September, the output in August decreased month - on - month. However, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and factories will resume production after the military parade, so the pattern of loose supply has not changed. On the demand side, affected by the September military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories has declined for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the subsequent increase in operating load will be limited. Currently, the factory's finished product inventory is being depleted, and the finished fertilizer is being transferred to the end - users. The demand for compound fertilizer in Shandong has reached the historical high for the same period, and the possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer stockpiling is low. With the finished product inventory higher than the same period last year, the incremental demand for raw materials may be limited. It is expected that the operating load will increase next week [1]. - The inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 6.19 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.05%. As it is about to enter the peak season for autumn fertilizers, the demand of compound fertilizer factories has resilience, which can support the downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1742 yuan/ton, moved higher, and showed a strong oscillation, finally closing at 1746 yuan/ton, with a yin - yang line and a change rate of +0.52%. The trading volume was 219382 lots (-892 lots). Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2105 lots, and the short positions increased by 915 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of +781 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -642 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +3467 lots, and Huatai Futures had a net short position of +1176 lots [2]. - Spot: The recent market trading activity is low. The price in Shandong region rebounded today after a price cut yesterday to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories ranges from 1660 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on September 2, 2025, the daily national urea output was 185,600 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.42% [9]. - Warehouse receipts: On September 2, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7205, the same as the previous trading day [3].