美指反弹，铜价承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The U.S. dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Although currently in the off - season of consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities boosts copper demand. However, affected by U.S. tariff policies and domestic subsidy policies, the overall demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak year - on - year. With overseas trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues, the dollar index decline supports the non - ferrous metal market. The domestic copper supply is expected to be tight, and demand is about to enter the peak season. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - China's imports of copper ore concentrates in July were about 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its profit - compensation for smelters will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will return to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market. As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although in the off - season, domestic power grid investment drives demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and domestic demand has also been advanced [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, then fell back, and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,896/ton, and the spot premium was - $91.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 29, the latest data showed that the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 277,800 short tons, an increase of 2,617 short tons from the previous period [11]