银河期货花生日报-20250902

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still low, and downstream demand remains weak. Short - term peanut prices are relatively stable, and peanut 11 will continue to fluctuate narrowly. The planting area is expected to increase, and the planting cost will decrease. Some peanuts have started to be listed [9]. - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mill crushing is acceptable [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 7870, down 18 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 28 (down 33.33%) and an open interest of 404 (down 0.49%) [2]. - PK510 closed at 7970, down 52 (-0.65%), with a trading volume of 10,219 (down 2.29%) and an open interest of 40,126 (down 7.65%) [2]. - PK601 closed at 7848, down 24 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 9,209 (up 41.26%) and an open interest of 32,988 (up 3.44%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang was 8800, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, Rizhao peanut meal was 3350, Rizhao soybean meal was 3000, peanut oil was 14780, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8440. The prices of peanuts and soybean oil were stable, while peanut oil dropped by 70 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Henan Nanyang was 830, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 430, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6340 [2]. - Import prices: Sudanese peanuts were 8500, and the price was stable [2]. 3.1.3 Spread - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 22, down 6; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 100, up 34; PK10 - PK01 spread was 122, down 28 [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 general peanuts were 3.9 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu were 4.0 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha general peanuts were 4.35 - 4.45 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan were 4.05 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined peanuts were 8500 yuan/ton. Short - term peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively stable [4]. - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today. Before the suspension, the mainstream transaction price was between 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 8050 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14800 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with a 48 - protein quote of 3260 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. One can try to buy the bottom of peanut 05 [10]. - Monthly spread: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Sell and hold pk511 - C - 8200 [12]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the crushing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [14][20][23].