银河期货沥青日报-20250902

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, September 2, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [3] - Contact Information: 021 - 65789108, wuxiaorong_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price 3551, up 11 (0.31%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price 3543, up 21 (0.60%) [2] - BU2512: Price 3492, up 26 (0.75%) [2] - SC2509: Price 490.4, up 6.9 (1.43%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price 68.47, up 1.2 (1.80%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 10.6 million lots, down 0.4 million lots (-3.42%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 15.3 million lots, down 1.2 million lots (-7.36%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 70300 tons, down 1000 tons (-1.40%) [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: 51.00, down 5.00 (-8.93%) [2] - BU10 - 11: 8.00, down 10.00 (-55.56%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 127.00, up 9.00 (7.63%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 37.00, down 21.00 (-36.21%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: -13.00, down 11.00 (-750.00%) [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3540, up 30.00 (0.85%) [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3580, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - South China Market Price: 3530, up 10.00 (0.28%) [2] - Shandong Gasoline: 7525, up 8.00 (0.11%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: 6441, up 52.00 (0.81%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: 2900, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -6.0, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - Exchange Rate Intermediate Price: 7.1089, up 0.00 (0.02%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: -110.58, down 28.97 (-35.50%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 286.88, down 32.19 (-10.09%) [2] - BU - SC Crack Spread: -444.52, down 31.79 (-7.70%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 897.69, down 58.29 (-6.10%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 628.40, down 19.35 (-2.99%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - Shandong Market: Mainstream transaction prices rose 5 to 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment. At the beginning of the month, traders were not eager to sell, reducing low - price resources. Some asphalt prices were raised by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Terminal demand was stable, and refinery inventory was controllable, supporting prices. However, some refineries planned to resume production and supply was sufficient, limiting price increases [5] - Yangtze River Delta Market: Mainstream transaction prices remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Xinhai resumed asphalt production, increasing supply slightly. Main refineries' shipping was good, and inventory was at a medium - low level, keeping prices firm. Higher futures prices reduced low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and prices rose to 3570 - 3600 yuan/ton. Social inventory was being consumed, supporting prices in the short term [5] - South China Market: Mainstream transaction prices remained stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and futures prices improved market sentiment. With better weather, some projects supported demand. Some traders slightly raised prices, and Foshan warehouse prices rose to 3530 - 3540 yuan/ton. In the future, demand may gradually release, but overall demand was lower than previous years, and social inventory needed to be consumed, so prices may remain stable in the short term [6] Market Outlook - This Monday, domestic asphalt plant operation rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% from last Thursday, refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50%, and social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46%. Oil prices were short - term bullish, providing cost support. Supply decreased slightly in early September, and demand was stable, leading to inventory reduction. The South China spot market strengthened, driving the near - month contract to rebound. Asphalt prices will be volatile in the short term, with lower volatility than crude oil. The main BU contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3600 [7] Group 4: Related Charts - Chart 1: BU Main Contract Closing Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [10] - Chart 2: BU Main Contract Positions (Unit: million lots) [10] - Chart 3: East China Asphalt Market Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 4: Shandong Asphalt Market Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 5: Shandong Refinery Gasoline Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [15] - Chart 9: Shandong Refinery Diesel Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [15] - Data Sources: Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16]