燃料油日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply and inventory remain high in the near term, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium continues to decline, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First part: Related Data - On September 2, 2025, the FU main contract price was 2847, up 15 from the previous day; the LU main contract price was 3559, up 85 from the previous day. The FU main contract position was 193,000 lots, an increase of 136,000 lots; the LU main contract position was 79,000 lots, an increase of 8,000 lots. The FU warehouse receipts were 119,580 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LU warehouse receipts were 35,110 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The FU10 - 1 spread was 5, down 3 from the previous day; the LU11 - 12 spread was 22, up 8 from the previous day. The LU - FU main contract spread was 712, up 70 from the previous day [3]. Second part: Market Research and Judgment - Important Information: Vietnam's Nghi Son tendered to sell 5,000 tons of fuel oil for loading between September 7 - 9. Nigeria's Dangote refinery exported its first batch of gasoline cargo to the US [6]. - Market Analysis: For high - sulfur fuel oil, supply pressure decreased in the third quarter. 17% of Russian refinery primary processing capacity was affected by bombings, with an estimated impact on crude oil processing capacity of about 1.2 million barrels per day. Mexican high - sulfur exports declined, and Middle - Eastern high - sulfur exports remained low. Meanwhile, the seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually decreasing, but feedstock demand is still supported. The high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in Singapore in July reached the highest level since IMO2020. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the spot premium continued to decline, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers. The logistics of low - sulfur heavy feedstock are expected to be redirected to the Pan - Singapore area. The operation of Nigeria's RFCC unit remains unstable, and the Al - Zour low - sulfur exports have rebounded [7]. - Other Information: The Singapore paper - cargo market saw the high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread change from 1.5 to 1.0 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread change from 1.8 to 1.5 USD/ton [8]. Third part: Related Attachments - Multiple graphs are presented, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads [9].