山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term risk - aversion due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising stagflation risks in the US economy, along with a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold's risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes also support these trends [1]. - The trend of gold prices serves as an anchor for silver prices. Currently, there is a slight reduction in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF holdings in terms of capital, and a slight increase in silver's visible inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals were volatile and stronger, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.21%. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to have soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Related Data: - Price: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3516.10 per ounce, up $105.40 (3.09%) from last week; London gold was at $3474.90 per ounce, up $140.65 (4.22%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 2.97% from last week [2]. - Basis, Spread, and Ratio: The spread between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold was - 5.96 yuan per gram, down 25% from last week; the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.64, down 2.38% from last week [2]. - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 138,624 lots, down 20.60% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from last week [2]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 120,616 lots, an increase of 624 lots; the top 10 totaled 155,263 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 13,767 lots, a decrease of 550 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,190 lots, a decrease of 672 lots [3]. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are crucial [6]. - Related Data: - Price: Comex silver's main contract closed at $40.75 per ounce, up $2.20 (5.71%) from last week; London silver was at $40.58 per ounce, up $2.57 (6.76%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 5.02% from last week [6]. - Basis and Spread: The spread between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver was 525.93 yuan per gram, down 13.70% from last week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract was - 24 yuan per kilogram [6]. - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from last week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,961,835 lots, up 8.88% from last week. The total visible inventory was 42,794 tons, up 0.90% from last week [6]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 115,138 lots, a decrease of 681 lots; the top 10 totaled 159,406 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 49,270 lots, a decrease of 354 lots; the top 10 totaled 82,445 lots, an increase of 758 lots [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points from last time; the Fed's total assets are $6,654.234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from last time [8]. - Economic Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, unchanged; the US dollar index is 97.70, down 0.52% from last week; the inflation data shows that the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10 percentage points from last time [8][11]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,300.41 tons, up 0.08% from last time; the US's are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36,268.07 tons, unchanged [11][12]. - Fed Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is over 89.8%, and the probability distribution of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also provided [13].