ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-02 11:11Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a continuous recovery during the peak season. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in August, indicating a good macro atmosphere. Various metal prices are expected to strengthen, particularly for rigid supply varieties like copper and aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The number of listed companies in the industry is 141, with a total market value of 40,523.71 billion and a circulating market value of 38,091.88 billion [2]. - Domestic industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices changing by 1.1%, -0.1%, -0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, while SHFE prices changed by -0.9%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and -0.6% [5][25]. Economic Factors - The manufacturing PMI in China for August is reported at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3, with production and new orders indices at 50.8 and 49.5 respectively [8][35]. - The U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in July, while the CPI remained stable at 2.7% [8][45]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index has declined, with CPI growth steady at 2% [8][43]. - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July, indicating a slight deterioration in business conditions [8][49]. Basic Metals - The recovery in the peak season continues, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, with signs of increasing downstream demand [9][51]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw a capacity increase of 10,000 tons, with operational capacity reaching 44,035,000 tons [10][52]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.7%, indicating a recovery trend as the peak season approaches [10][53]. Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price is experiencing accelerated declines, with a current price of 3,209 yuan/ton, down 1.26% [12][97]. - Domestic alumina inventory has risen to 4,316,000 tons, surpassing historical levels [12][99]. Copper - The processing fee for copper has declined, with domestic electrolytic copper production reported at 238,000 tons, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year [14][116]. - Domestic copper inventory has decreased to 202,200 tons, down 0.88% from the previous week [14][116]. Zinc - The processing fee for refined zinc has increased, with domestic production reported at 138,400 tons, up 4.05% year-on-year [15][116]. - Domestic zinc inventory has continued to rise, reaching 144,500 tons [15][116].