TongQingLou Catering (SH:605108) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-02 11:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady business expansion and multi-industry collaboration, which is expected to support long-term growth [1] - The company reported a slight miss in earnings expectations for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 0.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [7] - The company is focusing on the synergistic development of its restaurant, hotel, and food businesses, with ongoing expansion and upgrades to existing locations [7] - The company is leveraging digital upgrades and external collaborations to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [7] - Despite rising expansion costs and a challenging consumer environment, the company is expected to return to a growth trajectory driven by the recovery of the wedding banquet market [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.927 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.9% [6] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 0.189 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 88.8% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 21.8% in 2025, 23.3% in 2026, and 24.3% in 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.9% in 2025 to 13.2% in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 30 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 14 for 2027 [6]