银河期货甲醇日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The methanol market has a loose supply situation, with high domestic methanol开工率 and increasing imports. Port inventories are at a record high, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Against this backdrop, the strategy is to short at high prices rather than chase short positions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The futures price fluctuated and closed at 2372 (+13/+0.55%) [3]. - Spot Market: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2040 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 2030 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From August 23 - 29, 2025, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 1,066,107 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 73.08%, a 1.19% increase from the previous week. During this period, Iranian plants were operating normally, while some plants in other regions had different operating conditions [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have increased coal mine开工率 and falling coal prices. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 650 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is loose. Import prices decreased slightly last week, and the import profit margin expanded. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, and non - Iranian plants have stable operations [5]. - Demand: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season with a decline in开工率, while the MTO device开工率 has rebounded. Some MTO plants have different operating loads [5]. - Inventory: Port inventories are increasing due to more imports, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventories fluctuate slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short at high prices, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Sell call options [9].