基础化工行业：25Q2行业盈利环比修复国内外流动性趋松需求有望长周期向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability in Q2 2025, driven by a decrease in oil and coal prices, which has alleviated cost pressures [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong demand trend post-holiday, with inventory levels decreasing and a significant recovery in profitability across various sectors within the chemical industry [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in demand due to improved liquidity and supportive government policies, despite external challenges [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical sector saw a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year, reaching 548.3 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 5% to 35.5 billion yuan [25][26]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was reported at 17.9%, with a slight improvement from the previous quarter [27][30]. 2. Profit Recovery in Q2 2025 - The report notes that the chemical industry is in a phase of recovery, with various sub-sectors showing significant improvements in profitability, particularly in agriculture-related chemicals and fluorochemicals [4][5]. - The report identifies key sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers as having notable profit increases, while sectors like organic silicon and soda ash faced declines [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: textile supply chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Huafu Chemical, Yunnan Yuntianhua, and Wanhu Chemical, which are positioned well within their respective markets [5][6]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is improving, with the chemical index rising by 23.89% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming other indices [13][15]. - The report also highlights that the supply side is stabilizing, with capital expenditures nearing their peak and a reduction in ongoing projects, which is expected to lead to a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics [6][7].