银河期货尿素日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic urea supply is abundant, and the overall demand is declining. Although the new round of Indian tenders and the relaxation of export policies have a certain boosting effect on the market sentiment, the short - term domestic demand is still limited. The spot market sentiment is generally stable, and the focus is on the results of the Indian tenders and the export volume to India [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and finally closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%) [4]. - Spot market: The ex - factory prices were stable with average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1640 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - On September 2, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.26 tons, an increase of 0.11 tons compared with the previous working day and a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate was 78.05%, a decrease of 5.20% compared with 83.25% in the same period last year [5]. Logical Analysis - Market sentiment: The market sentiment was average, with stable ex - factory prices in mainstream regions and average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in Shandong showed a hidden decline, and the market sentiment was general. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory prices followed the upward trend. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [6]. - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the average daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 61,900 tons to around 1.0858 million tons, at a high level overall [6]. - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, with the tender closing on September 2 and the shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment under the relaxed export policy. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and the grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the urea inventory could be used for more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [6]. - Forecast: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. After the agricultural demand ended and the compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale, the spot market sentiment was generally stable. The ex - factory prices in some regions decreased, and the manufacturers' order receipts improved. The Indian tenders and the relaxation of export policies had a certain supporting effect on the domestic spot market. After the ex - factory prices were raised to around 1680 yuan/ton, the downstream adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures fluctuated, and the third batch of export quotas had been finalized. The key was the results of the Indian tenders and the export volume to India [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [10].