银河期货农产品日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current market inventory is low, demand is in the off - season, and spot sales are average. New - season apple production is likely to change little from this season. Early - maturing apples have a low high - quality fruit rate, with high - quality ones priced high and low - quality ones priced low. It is expected that the price of new - season Fuji apples will be high at the beginning of listing, and the short - term futures market will fluctuate slightly stronger, suggesting to buy long positions on dips for new - season apples [9] 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 6.93, up 0.08. AP01 futures price is 8277, up 16; AP05 is 8222, up 9; AP10 is 8389, up 15. The basis of Qixia first - and second - class 80 - AP01 is - 677, down 16; Qixia first - and second - class 80 - AP10 is - 789.0, down 15; Qixia first - and second - class 80 - AP05 is - 622, down 9 [3] Market News and Views - Inventory and Trade Data: As of August 29, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 339,700 tons, a decrease of 276,400 tons from four weeks ago and a year - on - year decrease of 43.9%. In July 2025, fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95%. Imports were 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73% and a year - on - year increase of 8.47%. The cumulative imports from January to July 2025 were 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.76% [6] - Market Conditions and Prices: In Shandong, cold - storage apple prices are stable, with low - quality goods having less transactions. In the northwest, early - maturing apples are in good demand, and the order price of early - maturing Fuji is high. The mainstream apple prices in Qixia, Shandong are stable, and the number of cold - storage buyers has increased recently [7][8] - Profit: The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - class storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [8] - Trading Logic: Spot inventory is low, demand is in the off - season, and sales are average. New - season production is expected to change little, and the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is low, so it is expected that the price of new - season Fuji will be high at the beginning [9] - Trading Strategies: For new - season apples, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, buy low and sell high. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [10][11][12] Related Drawings - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - class paper - bag 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70, AP contract main basis, and national cold - storage apple inventory [15][19][25]