银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250902

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Galaxy Futures [2] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London Gold reached a new high of $3,508.69 but fell back to around $3,479; London Silver touched $40.848 and then dropped to around $40.4. SHFE Gold closed up 1.21% at 804.32 yuan/gram, and SHFE Silver closed up 2.33% at 9,824 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: Opened lower and closed higher, ending a 5 - day decline and standing back at around 98.25 [3] - 10 - Year US Treasury Yield: Gapped up and traded around 4.277% [4] - RMB Exchange Rate: Depreciated against the US dollar, falling to around 7.1478 [5] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and Beisente is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy. Milan may take office before the September Fed meeting [6] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.9%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.3%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.9% [6] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Concerns: The Cook incident has intensified market concerns. The US July PCE rebounded in line with expectations, and Fed officials' dovish remarks strengthened the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7] - Economic Outlook: The US may face a "stagflation - like" situation due to a cooling labor market and potential tariff impacts, leading to a strong rise in precious metals and an expected high - level and strong oscillation in the future [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold existing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and pay attention to the resistance at the $3,500 level of London Gold [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [12] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Presented the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [14][15] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Showed the relationship between real yields and London Gold and London Silver [16][17][22] - Domestic and Foreign Futures: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [18][19][21] - Futures and Spot: Illustrated the price differences between futures and spot gold and silver [24][25] - Domestic and Foreign Price Differences: Presented the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [28][29][31] - Gold - Silver Ratio: Showed the gold - silver ratios on the SHFE and Comex [38][39] - ETF Holdings: Presented the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [40][41][42] - Futures Positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver futures [43][44] - Futures Inventories: Showed the inventories of gold and silver futures [48][45] - Trading Volume: Presented the trading volumes of SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver [46][47] - TD Data: Included the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][56] - Treasury Yields and Inflation: Showed the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, and real interest rates, as well as US Treasury yields [54]