Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors such as the continuous fermentation of Fed Governor Cook's incident, the rebound of US PCE in July in line with expectations, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, leading to the strong rise of precious metals and the expectation of a continued high - level and strong - side shock in the future [2]. - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors for the non - ferrous metals market. Policy changes in the non - ferrous metals industry, production and supply situations, and consumption trends vary by metal type, affecting their respective price trends and providing different trading strategies [2][5][10] Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Market Review: London gold rose for five consecutive days, hitting a new high since April 22, up 0.83% to $3475.45 per ounce; London silver broke through the $40 mark for the first time since September 2011, up 2.48% to $40.674 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.46% to 9836 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Important Information: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September and October [2]. - Logic Analysis: Multiple factors strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, so precious metals are expected to continue a high - level and strong - side shock [2]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position of precious metals, consider holding the previous long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at the $3500 integer mark of London gold. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Copper - Market Review: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 79660 yuan per ton, down 0.06%, and the LME closed at $9875 per ton, down 0.11%. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 15.88 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2617 tons to 27.78 million tons [5]. - Important Information: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed, and the German economic minister called for a strategy to deal with China's large - scale procurement of scrap copper [5]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively sufficient, but the deliverable supply is relatively tight. Terminal consumption is weakening, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect high - level consolidation. For arbitrage, consider cross - market positive arbitrage, with a fast - in and fast - out approach for virtual - position positive arbitrage. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8] Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2510 contract rose 6 yuan to 2998 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a decrease in Xinjiang [10]. - Important Information: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, with a lower winning price. The national alumina operating capacity decreased slightly, and inventories increased [10][11][12]. - Logic Analysis: Spot trading has become more frequent, but the spot price is expected to decline. The overall supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue to increase [12]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the alumina price to maintain a weak trend. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 20285 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with an increase in the East China region [15]. - Important Information: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting some enterprises. Social inventories of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and imports decreased [15][16][17]. - Logic Analysis: Policy changes have affected the recycled aluminum industry, with a shortage of scrap aluminum. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is tightening. Alloy ingot prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger [17]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the price to fluctuate at a high level with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [18][19] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 20 yuan to 20690 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The price of thermal coal also decreased [21]. - Important Information: China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and aluminum ingot inventories increased. Two large - scale electrolytic aluminum projects are under construction [22]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The output of aluminum rods increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots in factories decreased. The downstream processing industry is recovering [23]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the aluminum price to fluctuate with the external market in the short term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25] Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc rose 0.68% to $2833 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2510 remained unchanged at 22195 yuan per ton. Spot trading in Shanghai was light [27]. - Important Information: Domestic zinc inventories increased, and a zinc smelter in Guangxi will undergo maintenance [27]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, but the output of refined zinc may decrease in September. The downstream consumption in North China is affected by environmental protection, while that in South and East China is improving [27][28]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the zinc price to be stronger in a certain range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [29] Lead - Market Review: The LME lead rose 0.5% to $2007 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.53% to 16930 yuan per ton. Spot trading was weak [30]. - Important Information: A new standard for electric bicycles was implemented on September 1, 2025 [30]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the production of lead smelters is decreasing. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [30]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the lead price to rise slightly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [31] Nickel - Market Review: The LME nickel rose $70 to $15475 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2510 rose 630 yuan to 123400 yuan per ton. The premium of different nickel products decreased [34]. - Important Information: Demonstrations in Indonesia have not affected the nickel industry for now. New RKAB quota regulations will be implemented in September, and a Chinese company won a nickel mine project in the Solomon Islands [35]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is variable in September. The riots in Indonesia may affect market sentiment. The supply and demand in China are relatively balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to be stronger in a shock [35]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the nickel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [36][37] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The stainless steel SS2510 contract rose 130 yuan to 13005 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given [39]. - Important Information: Nickel prices are rising, and the global stainless steel output in the first half of 2025 is announced [39]. - Logic Analysis: The rise in nickel prices drives up the price of stainless steel. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and there is an optimistic expectation for the peak season in September [39]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the stainless steel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [40] Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.89% to 8495 yuan per ton, and most spot prices were stable or slightly decreased [42]. - Important Information: A silicon - related standardization seminar will be held in September [43]. - Logic Analysis: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken, while the demand from polysilicon may increase. The supply is increasing, and the price may rebound in the short term [43]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect a short - term rebound. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, there is no strategy provided [43] Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures rose 6.03% to 52285 yuan per ton. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon showed different trends [45]. - Important Information: Domestic polysilicon prices rose [47]. - Logic Analysis: Although the output of polysilicon increases in September, the limited sales by enterprises and the increase in silicon wafer production provide upward momentum for the price [47]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, hold long positions and partially take profits near the previous high. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [47] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 1860 yuan to 75560 yuan per ton. Spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [49]. - Important Information: Porsche adjusted its battery business, a battery factory in China was put into production, and Tianqi Lithium prepared for the industrialization of lithium sulfide [49][50][52]. - Logic Analysis: The production of batteries and cathodes is increasing in September, but the output of lithium carbonate may be affected by raw materials. The price is looking for support, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be noted [52]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, consider buying after the price stabilizes. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [52] Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.2% to 274320 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and trading inquiries increased [54]. - Important Information: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed [54]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The LME inventory increased, and attention should be paid to future production resumption and demand recovery [55]. - Trading Strategy: For the long - position, expect the tin price to fluctuate. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250902
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-02 11:43