银河期货煤炭日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that coal prices will generally decline in the short term, as the supply is abundant with increased production from major coal - producing areas, while demand remains weak with seasonal decline in power plant consumption and stable inventory levels [5]. 3. Key Points by Section Market Review - On September 2nd, the port market continued to operate weakly, with prices of coal of various calorific values generally falling. For example, the market price of 5500 - kcal coal at ports was 685 - 695 yuan/ton, and different regions had different price ranges for coal of various calorific values [3]. Important News - From January to July, the total social electricity consumption in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid reached 1003.9 billion kWh, exceeding one trillion kWh one month earlier than last year, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: After the rainfall in the northwest region subsided, the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased. As of September 1st, the operating rate of coal mines in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, but the overall domestic supply tightened [5]. - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere improved [5]. - Demand: Power plants operated stably, with the unit load rate fluctuating around 70%. Power plant coal inventories were at a medium - to - high level. Power plants prioritized fulfilling long - term contracts, and only purchased market coal to fill rigid gaps. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the restart of methanol and urea plants kept their operating rates high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - Inventory: The rainfall in the northwest affected coal transportation. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was less than 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 15. With high outbound volume, port inventories continued to decline. As of September 2nd, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports dropped to 20.4 million tons, reaching a low level in the same period over the years [5].