Keshun(SZ:300737) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-02 11:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][29]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 3.22 billion yuan. The segments of waterproof membranes, waterproof coatings, and waterproof engineering construction reported revenues of 1.65 billion, 870 million, and 560 million yuan, respectively, showing declines of 9.8%, 9.2%, and an increase of 2.4% [1][9]. - The gross margin improved to 24.7%, up by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the optimization of product structure and growth in higher-margin overseas and retail businesses [2][12]. - The company has reduced its net cash outflow from operating activities to 560 million yuan, a decrease of 870 million yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating improved cash flow management [3][22]. - The company has initiated plans for overseas production, completing the construction of a manufacturing base in Malaysia, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 47 million yuan, down 50% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.04 yuan. The non-recurring profit and loss amounted to 61 million yuan, an increase of 9 million yuan year-on-year [1][9]. - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 24.7%, with quarterly margins of 24.4% and 24.9% for Q1 and Q2, respectively [2][12]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 18.1%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by a decline in revenue [2][12]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The net cash outflow from operating activities was significantly reduced, with a cash collection ratio of 0.97 and a payment ratio of 1.25, indicating improved cash management [3][22]. - The total accounts receivable decreased to 5.06 billion yuan, down 430 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting the company's efforts to optimize its revenue structure and improve collection quality [3][22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from price increases driven by industry consolidation and improved profitability, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 0.13, 0.24, and 0.34 yuan per share, respectively [3][26]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are 38.2, 21.5, and 15.2 times, indicating a potential recovery in profitability as growth stabilizes [3][26].