冠通每日交易策略-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - Crude Oil: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - Asphalt: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - PP: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - Plastic: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - PVC: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - Coking Coal: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - Urea: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - Copper: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - Crude Oil: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - Asphalt: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - PP: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - Plastic: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - Coking Coal: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - Urea: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].