债市分析框架之资金面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market is a crucial hub in the macro - economy, connecting monetary policy, financial markets, and the real economy. Analyzing the capital market helps reflect the financing environment, assist in pricing regulation, and provide early - warning of risks [4]. - The capital market is a key driver of the bond market's trend. Its tightness, structural changes, and related policies affect the bond market from aspects such as supply - demand, yield, and investor expectations. Different capital environments require corresponding adjustments to bond market investment strategies [5]. - This year, China's economy has shown a moderate recovery. Monetary policy has maintained a moderately loose tone but with dynamic adjustments. The bond market has shown high volatility along with the capital market and multiple factors. In the future, official statements indicate a caring attitude towards the capital market, and liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant to support the bond market, but the scope for further loosening may be limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 What is the Capital Market? - The capital market is a key link in the macro - economic system, comprehensively reflecting the total supply - demand relationship of funds. It can be understood from narrow and broad perspectives, and the two are linked through the "finance - real economy" cycle [10]. - The capital market reflects the transmission effect of monetary policy from the financial system to the real economy, forms the pricing basis for assets, is an important indicator for observing the real - economy financing environment, and affects market risk preference and systemic risks [14][15]. 3.2 Capital Market Analysis Framework 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Perspective - Supply involves policy - driven liquidity injection and credit creation. The central bank injects base money into the banking system through policy tools, and the banking system creates broad money through credit creation [19][20][23]. - Demand is related to various economic entities. The financing activities of the private sector, financial markets, and the government jointly determine the total scale and structural characteristics of capital demand [24]. 3.2.2 Policy Perspective - Monetary policy is the core driver of capital supply and demand. Its goals determine the direction of capital market changes, and a variety of policy tools precisely regulate the total amount and structure of capital to achieve dynamic balance [26]. - The transmission effect of monetary policy on the capital market can be understood from the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, it affects the total amount of bank - system funds and credit creation; on the demand side, it affects the real - economy's financing demand and expectations [31]. 3.2.3 Tracking Indicators - Quantity indicators focus on the total amount of circulating funds in the market, including base money scale, broad money supply, social financing scale, and bank - system liquidity level [32]. - Price indicators reflect changes in capital supply - demand and costs, mainly tracking different interest rates. The differences between different interest rates can also convey structural signals [41][42]. - Quantity and price indicators are inter - related, and special time points, affected by seasonal and policy factors, are also important dimensions for analyzing capital supply - demand changes [48][49]. 3.3 Capital Market and Bond Market 3.3.1 How the Capital Market Affects the Bond Market - The tightness of the capital market directly affects the supply - demand and pricing of the bond market; structural changes in the capital market cause differentiation within the bond market; and related regulatory policies affect market expectations of the bond market [54]. - Historically, the cyclical fluctuations of the bond market have been closely related to changes in the capital market. For example, in 2013, a tightened capital market triggered bond - market risks; in 2016, financial de - leveraging led to a downward adjustment in the bond market [55]. 3.3.2 Bond Market Strategies Adjusted According to Capital Tightness - In a loose capital environment, long - term interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds can be increased, and leverage can be moderately added; in a tight capital environment, the duration should be shortened, and leverage should be reduced [57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook 3.4.1 Fluctuations in the Bond Market and Capital Market Due to Multiple Factors - The capital market has evolved from a tight - balance to a moderately loose state. The bond market has shown high volatility this year, with downward adjustments in the early stage, a shock - recovery in the middle, and increased fluctuations in the policy observation period [64][72][73]. 3.4.2 Expected Reasonable and Abundant Liquidity - Official statements indicate a caring attitude towards the capital market, and liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant to support the bond market. However, the scope for further loosening of the capital market may be limited [77].