国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market conditions and trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to break through new highs. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 800.56 yuan with a daily increase of 1.97%, and the night - session closing price was 801.58 yuan with a night - session increase of 0.86%. The trend strength is 2 [5][6]. - Silver: Expected to reach the previous high. The Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 9775 yuan with a daily increase of 4.15%, and the night - session closing price was 9836 yuan with a night - session increase of 2.46%. The trend strength is 2 [5][6]. Base Metals - Copper: The domestic spot has a high premium, and the price is firm. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - Zinc: In a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - Lead: The continuous decrease in inventory supports the price. The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - Tin: In a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan with a daily decrease of 1.94%. The trend strength is 1 [19][20]. - Aluminum: The fundamentals are weak. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [23]. - Alumina: In a low - level oscillation. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3008 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [23]. - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, with sentiment stimulated by news. The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [27]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price oscillates in a narrow range. The Stainless Steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [27]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The partial suspension of the trade - in program continues the weak oscillation. The 2509 contract closed at 75,540 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [33]. - Industrial Silicon: It is advisable to short at high prices. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,495 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [36][37]. - Polysilicon: The spot quotation has increased, and the market volatility has expanded. The PS2511 contract closed at 52,285 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [37]. - Iron Ore: The macro - expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates in a wide range. The 12601 contract closed at 766 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.73%. The trend strength is 0 [40]. - Rebar: The inventory has accumulated too quickly, and the steel price oscillates and corrects. The RB2510 contract closed at 3,039 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.19%. The trend strength is - 1 [42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The inventory has accumulated too quickly, and the steel price oscillates and corrects. The HC2510 contract closed at 3,320 yuan with a daily decrease of 1.37%. The trend strength is - 1 [42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The market sentiment is weak, and it oscillates weakly. The Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5532 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [45]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment is weak, and it oscillates weakly. The Manganese Silicon 2511 contract closed at 5728 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [45]. - Coke: Oscillates in a wide range. The J2601 contract closed at 1594.5 yuan with a daily decrease of 3.0%. The trend strength is 0 [48]. - Coking Coal: Oscillates in a wide range. The JM2601 contract closed at 1118.5 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.8%. The trend strength is 0 [48]. - Log: Oscillates repeatedly. The 2509 contract closed at 776.5 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [50][51]. - Para - Xylene: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - spread strategy is recommended. [54] - PTA: A long - calendar - spread strategy is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on PTA and short on MEG. [54] - MEG: It is advisable to go long on PTA and short on MEG. [54] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no new fundamental driver, and it is advisable to go long on dips. [4] - Soybean Oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in a correction phase. [4] - Soybean Meal: Oscillates in a rebound, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans. [4] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillates in a rebound. [4] - Corn: Oscillates. [4] - Sugar: Waiting for news guidance. [4] - Cotton: Maintains a moderately strong oscillating trend. [4] - Egg: There is strong near - term gaming. [4] - Live Pig: The price increases with shrinking volume, waiting for confirmation of sustainability. [4] - Peanut: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts. [4]