人民币升值：短期催化与长期重估

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]