Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It provides logical analysis and technical tracking for each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and technical analysis. Overall, most products show a bearish or weak fundamental situation, with some products having short - term fluctuations and trading opportunities [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Short - term long and short are deadlocked, with contradictions brewing. After the peak season, demand decline and OPEC+ production increase bring supply pressure. The domestic seasonal demand slowdown makes SC crude oil weaker than the external market. The medium - term fundamental driver is bearish [1][2]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After today's rebound, the hourly - level structure is unclear, and the 15 - minute small - cycle turns long. Support at 488 on the 15 - minute level [2]. - Strategy: Take profit at the 15 - minute level and look for opportunities to re - enter after the price turns down again [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The expectation of long - side anti - involution disappears, high - level inventory accumulates rapidly, and the pattern of high production under high profit is hard to change. There is new device commissioning pressure in September - October. The medium - term fundamental is bearish [5]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and hit a new low with a long negative line, increasing positions by nearly 5%. The short - term pressure on the hourly cycle is at 7025 [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. (3) Rubber - Logic: There is no sign of supply increase, import is lower year - on - year, and the short - side lacks logical support in the short term. The long - side also has no upward drive due to high inventory and concerns about tire inventory [8]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute pressure is at 16000 [8]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 16000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamental of synthetic rubber is neutral, with no obvious short - term contradiction. In the medium term, pay attention to the suppression of tire enterprise inventory on production and the supply pressure of butadiene [12]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After a 50% increase in positions last week, it has not reduced positions or formed a short - term structure. The 15 - minute is in a short - term downward structure [13][15]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11920 [15]. (5) PX - Logic: Since last week, PX supply has increased, downstream PTA start - up has declined, and inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamental has weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [18]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped, and the decline has not accelerated. The short - term pressure is at 6900 [18]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 6900 [18]. (6) PTA - Logic: Due to some device overhauls, short - term supply has declined, downstream demand has not recovered, and it lacks self - driving force. More attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [23]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped. The short - term pressure is at 4800, and there is a short - selling opportunity if there is a reverse - wrapping signal on Friday night or today's morning session [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4800 [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity commissioning increase supply pressure, while demand improvement is limited. The fundamental is weak [25]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center moved down, hitting a new low since July. The short - term decline may accelerate. The hourly - level short - term pressure is at 7090, and the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure is at 6990 [25]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Domestic methanol production has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a historical high year - on - year. Overseas methanol also maintains high start - up. The port inventory has been accumulating significantly and reached a 5 - year high. The short - term driver is bearish [28]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated and failed to break through the short - term pressure at 2400 [28]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. (9) PVC - Logic: Supply remains high, real - estate demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. Both the current situation and the expectation of the fundamental are bearish [31]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the decline continued, and the short - term pressure is at 4965 [31]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory has decreased month - on - month, making its fundamental stronger than other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [35]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and volume with a long negative line, and the decline may accelerate. The 15 - minute pressure is at 4375 [35]. - Strategy: Wait for the end signal of the rebound to try short - selling [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The improvement of PE demand in the peak season is slow, and the fundamental driving force is general [37]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The short - term pressure is at 7365, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is at 7305. There was a standard short - selling signal last night on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. - Strategy: There is no entry signal in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling opportunity on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The disappearance of the anti - involution expectation and the approaching of the 09 delivery make soda ash return to the downward drive brought by high production, high supply, and high inventory. The real - estate downturn affects glass demand, and the supply pressure increases after the price is driven up by speculation. The fundamental is bearish [40]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated, and the downward structure remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The increase in chlor - alkali enterprise overhauls has led to a decline in start - up month - on - month, but it is still at a high level year - on - year. The speculation on transportation restrictions during the September 3 parade is coming to an end. The short - term downward drive is weakening, but the medium - term still faces high - supply pressure [43]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level is regarded as oscillating. Today, it had a long negative line with decreasing positions and volume, and the long - side main force left the market. The 15 - minute cycle turned down, and there is a short - selling opportunity at the end of the session [43]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle with a stop - loss reference of 2690 [43].
原油短线反弹，能化继续下行
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-02 14:56