成材矛盾持续积累，后期关注宏观情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As financial and macro - economic data weaken, steel consumption in August shows off - season characteristics, with high steel production, poor inventory performance compared to seasonality, and steel inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks. The export has also weakened due to previous price increases, impacting the black industry. In September, as the phased production - restriction measures during the military parade end and the macro - policy is expected to be in a vacuum period, the pricing of black commodity prices will depend on the performance of peak - season consumption. The overall financial and macro - economic situation is not optimistic, and future focus should be on domestic steel consumption, exports, and macro - policies [1][7][86][110]. - M1 and M2 continue to rise, and enhancing currency effectiveness is crucial. In July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of June; M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than at the end of June. The growth rate gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 3.2%, a 0.5% decrease from June [2][16][106]. - Real estate policies continue to be tightened, but real estate data is still at the bottom. In July, real estate development investment, completion, new construction, construction, and sales area all declined year - on - year [2][20][106]. - The economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, but infrastructure investment has weakened significantly. In July, the monthly infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth since December 2021, which will have a negative impact on domestic steel consumption [2][30][106]. - The manufacturing industry shows a mixed performance, and manufacturing investment is weakening. From January to August, China's manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line only in February and March, and has been below it for five consecutive months since April. In July, the overall growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 0.3%, the lowest since July 2020 [3][35][107]. - Domestic demand increases slightly, and raw material demand remains strong. From January to July 2025, domestic crude steel production was 64,890 million tons, a 2.8% year - on - year increase, and consumption was 57,126 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. Pig iron production was 52,815 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase [3][50][107]. - The steel export structure shows differentiation, but exports still maintain significant growth. From January to July 2025, domestic steel exports were 6,798 million tons, an increase of 675 million tons compared to last year. Steel billet exports were 747.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 565.3 million tons [5][54][108]. - Overseas consumption continues to expand, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increases. From January to July 2025, overseas crude steel production was 49,063 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease, and consumption was 56,542 million tons, a 2.30% year - on - year increase. In July, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish [6][67][109]. - The inventory of finished steel products continues to accumulate, and the support from raw materials weakens. Currently, the molten iron production remains high, iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and iron element inventory is at a medium - low level. The coking coal supply is expected to improve in the future [7][92][110]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Steel Consumption Increases Slightly, and Macro - economic Indicators Weaken - M1 and M2 Continue to Rise, and Currency Effectiveness is Key: In July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of June; M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than at the end of June. The growth rate gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 3.2%, a 0.5% decrease from June. New RMB loans were - 50 billion, 310 billion less year - on - year, with a growth rate of 6.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of June. New social financing was 1.16 trillion, 389.3 billion more year - on - year, with a growth rate of 9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than at the end of June [2][16][106]. - Real Estate Policies are Tightened, and Real Estate Data is at the Bottom: Since the second half of 2021, the real estate industry has been in deep adjustment. From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and in July, all real estate economic data showed a downward trend [19][20][106]. - The Economy was Resilient in the First Half of the Year, but Infrastructure Investment Weakens Significantly: After a series of macro - policies were introduced last September, the domestic economy maintained strong resilience. In the first half of this year, the GDP growth rate was 5.3%. In July, the monthly infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth since December 2021 [30][31][106]. - The Manufacturing Industry Shows a Mixed Performance, and Manufacturing Investment is Weakening: From January to July, the second - industry electricity consumption showed some resilience. From January to August, China's manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line only in February and March, and has been below it for five consecutive months since April. In July, the overall growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 0.3%, the lowest since July 2020 [35][47][107]. - Domestic Demand Increases Slightly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong: From January to July 2025, domestic crude steel production was 64,890 million tons, a 2.8% year - on - year increase, and consumption was 57,126 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. Pig iron production was 52,815 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, indicating strong raw material demand [50][51][107]. 3.2 Steel Export Structure Shows Differentiation, but Exports Still Maintain Significant Growth - Anti - dumping Investigations Disturb, and Export Structure Shows Differentiation: In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, a new high since 2017. From January to July 2025, domestic steel exports were 6,798 million tons, an increase of 675 million tons compared to last year. Although some varieties' exports decreased due to anti - dumping investigations, overall exports are still strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - dumping investigations and domestic prices on exports [54][55][57]. - Steel Billet Exports Increase Continuously, Significantly Easing Domestic Pressure: Since 2021, steel billet exports have increased significantly. From January to July 2025, domestic steel billet exports were 747.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 565.3 million tons, mainly exported to Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe [62][63][65]. 3.3 Overseas Consumption Continues to Expand, and the Expectation of the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Increases - Overseas Consumption Expands, and India Continues to Grow Significantly: From January to July 2025, overseas crude steel production was 49,063 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease, and consumption was 56,542 million tons, a 2.30% year - on - year increase. India's production increased by 14%. From January to July, the net export of crude steel equivalent was 7,479 million tons, a 24.2% year - on - year increase [67][68][70]. - Overseas Total Iron Production Decreases Slightly, and India Contributes Most of the Increment: From January to July 2025, overseas total iron production was 30,991 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease. India's production increased by 8.7%. From January to July, overseas scrap steel consumption was 22,978 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with an increasing trend from June to July [73][74][77]. - The Fed's Meeting Turns Dovish, and Monetary Liquidity is "Easy to Loosen and Hard to Tighten": In July, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish, clearing the way for long - term inflation [79][84][85]. 3.4 The Inventory of Finished Steel Products Continues to Accumulate, and the Support from Raw Materials Weakens - The Consumption of Finished Steel Products Weakens Month - on - Month, and Steel Inventory Continues to Accumulate: From January to July, domestic steel consumption maintained resilience, and exports were strong, with low inventory. In August, due to weakening financial and macro - economic data, steel consumption showed off - season characteristics, with high production, poor inventory performance, and five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. The export also weakened. In September, the pricing of black commodity prices will depend on peak - season consumption [86][87][90]. - Iron Ore Supply Continues to Recover, and Future Expectations Weaken: In August, iron ore shipments rebounded month - on - month, and the arrival of iron ore decreased slightly. The molten iron production remained high, and the iron ore inventory accumulation was lower than expected, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance. With weakening domestic demand and export expectations, the molten iron production may decrease, breaking the tight balance [92][93][110]. - Coking Coal Maintains a Tight Balance, and Supply Will Recover: Since mid - June, coking coal and carbon element inventories have been continuously depleted. In August, the fundamentals of coking coal continued to improve, but the improvement rate slowed down. The coking coal production recovered slowly due to short - term production - restriction during the military parade, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered. The coking coal supply is expected to improve in the future [94][97][110]. 3.5 Conclusion - The situation is similar to the previous core viewpoints, emphasizing the need to pay attention to domestic steel consumption, exports, and macro - policies in the context of current economic situations such as weakening infrastructure investment, mixed manufacturing performance, and changes in steel exports and raw material supply [106][107][110]. 3.6 Strategy - With the continuous accumulation of contradictions in finished steel products and the weakening support from raw materials, attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policies [111].