综合晨报：国际金价再创历史新高，A股震荡调整-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - Macro Strategy (Gold): The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index): Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures): The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures): Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures): The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - Agricultural Products (Red Dates): The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips): The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash): The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - Energy Chemicals (Float Glass): The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates): The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].