聚酯产业风险管理日报：新产能传闻提前投放，集中空配下大幅下跌-20250903

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - New Capacity Rumor of Early Launch, Sharp Decline under Concentrated Short Allocation [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price range forecast for ethylene glycol (monthly): 4200 - 4600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 11.30%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.9% [2] - Price range forecast for PX (monthly): 6500 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.41%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 24.8% [2] - Price range forecast for PTA (monthly): 4400 - 5300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.21%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 17.0% [2] - Price range forecast for bottle chips (monthly): 5800 - 6500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.55%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.4% [2] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with long spot exposure, short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range: 4450 - 4550), buy EG2510P4300 put options and sell EG2510C4400 call options (50% hedging ratio for put options, entry range: 10 - 20; 25 - 40 for call options) [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement standing inventory and intention to purchase based on orders, with short spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range: 4250 - 4350), sell EG2510P4300 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range: 30 - 50) [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Recently, ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers. Affected by the rumor of new device early launch, it became a concentrated short allocation and weakened. Although the pattern remains in a stocking trend, it is expected to have large upward elasticity when bullish drivers appear. Currently, it oscillates in the range of 4250 - 4500, and it is recommended to go long on dips or sell the 10 - contract 4250 put [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - This week's planned arrival is 11.01 tons, relatively small. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, and spot liquidity is expected to tighten further [5] - Due to the Houthi armed attack on a cruise ship in the northern Red Sea, oil prices rose in the afternoon, but the cost - end support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly and then fell again [5] Group 6: Bearish Factors - There is a market rumor that the new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong will be launched in September. If true, it will run at a low load in September and add an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons in October [6] - The terminal demand of weaving has declined recently, with limited new orders. Coupled with the continuous high temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the loom operation rate has decreased slightly [6] - Due to poor production efficiency and order - receiving situation, bottle chip factories have cancelled their production increase plans, and the polyester operation rate in September is highly restricted [6] Group 7: Price and Spread Data - Various prices and spreads of polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [9][10] Group 8: Processing Fee and Profit Data - Processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, POY, DTY, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [10]