五矿期货早报有色金属-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals show different trends. Some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others face a divergence between macro - background and industrial status [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - US manufacturing PMI was slightly weaker than expected, and copper prices rose. LME copper closed up 1.4% to $10,013/ton, and SHFE copper main contract reached 80,410 yuan/ton. - LME copper inventory decreased by 100 to 158,775 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 8.2%. - In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased, and the basis quote was lowered. The downstream buying sentiment was poor. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,850 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage continued to increase. - Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 79,600 - 81,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,880 - 10,100/ton [2]. Aluminum - With rising crude oil prices, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.08% to $2,621/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract reached 20,845 yuan/ton. - SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased, and futures warehouse receipts slightly increased. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. Aluminum rod processing fees declined, and downstream demand was weak. - The Fed's dovish signal increased the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,700 - 20,950 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,600 - 2,640/ton [4]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed down 0.03% to 16,852 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,996/ton. - Lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and processing fees were in a downward trend. - The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With a high Fed rate - cut expectation and a positive non - ferrous metals sector, lead prices are expected to be bullish [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed up 0.68% to 22,319 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,850.5/ton. - Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and smelting output continued to expand. Zinc ingot social inventory increased rapidly. - Downstream enterprise operating rates did not improve significantly, and the industry remained in an oversupply situation. - Due to a high Fed rate - cut expectation and a positive non - ferrous metals sector, there is a divergence between the macro - background and industrial status. Zinc prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern with limited short - term downside [7]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and tin ore shortages in Yunnan were severe. - Downstream demand was in the off - season, and traditional consumption areas were weak. - It is expected that refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly oscillatory. Nickel - iron prices are expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term. - The supply of intermediate products was in short supply, and demand provided some support. - Although the refined nickel supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, there are long - term supports for nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed down, and the LC2511 contract price also decreased. - The impact of mine - end disturbances subsided, and there was a lack of bullish drivers. Lithium carbonate continued its weak adjustment. - It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The LC2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.5% to 3,020 yuan/ton. - Ore supply disturbances continued, and the macro - sentiment improvement was expected to drive the non - ferrous metals sector. - Short - term alumina futures prices have limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,900 - 3,300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.08% to 12,960 yuan/ton. - The Indonesian riot raised concerns about nickel raw material supply. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season, stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - Cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory is increasing. - Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be high, with cost support and increased market activity [18].