生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. There is a likelihood of a monthly increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs provides some support to pig prices. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 2nd, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,076 lots today, with a position of about 73,400 lots. The highest price of the day was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,500 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,595 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - National average live pig slaughter price: On September 2nd, it was 14.03 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.36%. - Provincial - level live pig slaughter prices: In Henan, it was 14.08 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day, a decrease of 1.61%. In Sichuan, it was 13.84 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day, an increase of 1.24%. - Futures prices: The prices of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the 01 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.14%; the 11 contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. - Main contract basis: In Henan, it was 485 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 29.2% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not repeated here [14].