Western Securities·2025-09-03 01:29Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a strong allocation towards precious metals, particularly gold, and recommends overweighting Hong Kong stocks benefiting from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, while maintaining positions in A-shares with a balanced focus on resources and technology growth [1][10] - The report highlights the acceleration of de-dollarization and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to increased demand for gold as a safe asset [8][9] Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Insights - The domestic large-displacement motorcycle penetration rate is continuously increasing, with significant growth potential for Chinese motorcycle manufacturers in the global market, particularly in large-displacement segments [2][12] - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2024, the sales of large-displacement motorcycles in China are expected to grow from approximately 140,000 units to 400,000 units, with a CAGR of 30% [13] - Exports are becoming a crucial growth driver for Chinese motorcycle manufacturers, with the export volume of motorcycles expected to increase significantly, particularly in the large-displacement category [14][15] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Tengya Precision (301125.SZ) is expected to achieve a net profit of 44 million, 149 million, and 231 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.2, 18.9, and 12.2, indicating strong growth potential [5][22] - Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) is projected to have a net profit of 2.712 billion, 3.355 billion, and 3.762 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 41.9%, 23.7%, and 12.2% respectively [6][24] - The report emphasizes the robust growth of the AI and smart inspection business for Zeyu Intelligent (301179.SZ), with expected net profits of 222 million, 266 million, and 322 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [37][39] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading motorcycle manufacturers such as Chunfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, which are expected to benefit from the growing global demand for large-displacement motorcycles [3][16] - The report suggests maintaining a "buy" rating for Tengya Precision, Zhongke Shuguang, and Zeyu Intelligent based on their growth prospects and market positioning [22][24][39]