宝城期货国债期货早报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of treasury bond futures is mainly for oscillatory consolidation, with limited upside and downside space. The overall view for TL2512 is oscillatory, with a short - term and mid - term oscillatory trend and an intraday oscillatory - weakening trend, due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1][5]. - Although the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing to support technology and boost consumption, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing as the main approach. The strong risk appetite in the stock market has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing bond - buying demand, limiting the rebound space of treasury bond futures. However, the future monetary policy environment is loose, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5].