工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon price of industrial silicon may maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon fluctuates and is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply side is increasing steadily, while the demand side has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be under pressure again. For polysilicon, the fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the price support is insufficient [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.29% to 8,470 yuan/ton [1] - Supply Side: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates [1] - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, bringing some demand increments. For organic silicon, a large factory stopped for rectification due to an accident, and the supply is tightened stage - by - stage. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase according to demand [1] - Investment Strategy: The silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N - type dense material rose 4.17% to 50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 5.10% to 51.5 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon rose 5.43% to 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.78% to 51,875 yuan/ton [1] - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand Side: According to the current latest polysilicon price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. The price of battery cells has loosened, and the terminal's acceptance of high prices is low [1] - Investment Strategy: The price of polysilicon fluctuates and is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - emotions [1] Other Information - Company News: On September 1, Longi Green Energy held a performance briefing for the first half of 2025. The company's HIBC battery technology has matured for large - scale mass production and has been gradually introduced to the distributed photovoltaic market [1] - Market News: Recently, domestic component enterprises have started negotiations on the Q4 procurement plan. Some silicone factories have finalized orders, and the trading volume has increased significantly. The average price of photovoltaic glue is expected to rise slightly [1]