中辉有色观点-20250903

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended, ★★★ [1] - Silver: Long position recommended, ★★ [1] - Copper: Hold long positions, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bearish, ★ [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Multiple risk factors have pushed gold to a new all - time high. Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] - Copper: It has broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][5] - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment are positive, but domestic demand is weak, inventory is piling up, and there is a policy vacuum. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases [1][8] - Aluminum: As the peak season approaches, the price has rebounded, but there are still constraints on the supply and demand side [9][11] - Nickel: Supply pressure persists, and the price rebounds and then falls [13][15] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for a new driving force, and the price is in a wide - range shock [17][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff disputes, and doubts about the Fed's independence have boosted gold, with foreign gold hitting a new all - time high [2] Basic Logic - US data has weakened, with a decline in construction spending and a contraction in the manufacturing index. There is a stand - off between the White House and the Fed, and Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, etc. [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 800 in the short - term, and pay attention to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9530. Long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has strengthened and broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark, and London copper has reached the $10,000 mark [5] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up, and domestic inventory is at a relatively low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can try long positions on pullbacks. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [6] Zinc Market Review - London zinc has strengthened, and Shanghai zinc has followed slightly [8] Industry Logic - Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, processing fees are rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. Domestic inventory is piling up, and overseas inventory is decreasing [8] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see in the short - term, and sell on rallies in the long - term [8] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price has rebounded, while alumina is relatively weak [10] Industry Logic - There are obvious expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and inventory is piling up. Alumina supply is abundant, and demand is expected to be loose in the short - term [11] Strategy Recommendation - Try long positions on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rate [12] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price has rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel has also rebounded [14] Industry Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. Domestic refined nickel supply is excessive, and stainless steel inventory is gradually decreasing [15] Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [16] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 4% [18] Industry Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains high, and demand is picking up, with inventory declining for three consecutive weeks [19] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize in the range of [71300 - 74500] [20]