Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short-term rebound [3] - Coke: Weak in the medium term, fluctuating in the short term [8] - Coking Coal: Weak in the medium term, fluctuating in the short term [12] - Ferroalloys: Short-term technical rebound, prices under pressure in the medium term [16] Core Views - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) - Rebar: Currently, blast furnace profits have declined but remain positive. Hot metal production is stable at a high level and may decrease due to pre-parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month-on-month but is still lower than production, leading to rising inventories and a more relaxed supply-demand balance. In the medium term, there is room for a decline, but there may be a short-term rebound after continuous downward movement [1][4]. - Hot-rolled coils: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month-on-month, and inventories have increased slightly. The overall supply-demand situation of steel is becoming more relaxed, with limited short-term positive factors. In the medium term, there is a risk of decline under the weak fundamentals, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are increasing. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, resulting in a neutral to weak fundamental situation. Macro sentiment has cooled, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with ore prices fluctuating weakly [1][6]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has been initiated, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises have production restriction policies, leading to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. After the recent decline in the futures market, there may be a technical rebound, but there is still a risk of decline in the medium term due to the expectation of复产 [1][10]. - Coking Coal: Affected by the parade, safety inspections have been strengthened in some areas, and the recovery of coking coal production is slow. Although hot metal production remains high, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has weakened. Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The steel industry's stable growth policy mainly focuses on ensuring the stable supply of raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract trading at a premium to the warehouse receipt cost, there is a risk of a downward correction in the medium term, but there may be a rebound at key support levels in the short term [1][14]. - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - Ferromanganese: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have decreased by 0.7 tons to 14.9 tons. Steel mills' restocking will start in September, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement. The October manganese ore quotations from Comilog and Union Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the port ore prices have not declined significantly in the short term, providing some support to the cost side. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have increased by 830 tons to 62,900 tons. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][17]. Summary by Variety Steel - Rebar - Price: Futures prices for different contracts vary, with the latest prices for RB01 at 3117, RB05 at 3165, and RB10 at 3047. Spot prices also vary by region, such as 3120 in Tangshan and 3240 in Shanghai [2]. - Analysis: Demand has increased month-on-month but is still lower than production, leading to rising inventories. The overall supply-demand situation is becoming more relaxed, and in the medium term, there is room for a decline, but there may be a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled coils - Price: Futures prices for different contracts vary, with the latest prices for HC01 at 3298, HC05 at 3312, and HC10 at 3310. Spot prices also vary by region, such as 3290 in Tianjin and 3350 in Shanghai [2]. - Analysis: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month-on-month, and inventories have increased slightly. The overall supply-demand situation of steel is becoming more relaxed, and in the medium term, there is a risk of decline, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Price: Not provided in the text. - Analysis: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are increasing. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, resulting in a neutral to weak fundamental situation. Macro sentiment has cooled, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with ore prices fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Price - Futures: The latest prices for different contracts are J01 at 1596.5, J05 at 1689.0, and J09 at 1485.0 [9]. - Spot: The prices of different grades and regions remain stable, such as 1330 for Lvliang quasi-primary metallurgical coke ex-factory price and 1570 for Rizhao Port primary metallurgical coke FOB price [9]. - Analysis: The first round of price cuts has been initiated, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises have production restriction policies, leading to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. After the recent decline in the futures market, there may be a technical rebound, but there is still a risk of decline in the medium term due to the expectation of复产. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Price - Futures: The latest prices for different contracts are JM01 at 1112.5, JM05 at 1159.5, and JM09 at 972.5 [13]. - Spot: The prices of different grades and regions remain stable, such as 1430 for Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) and 1250 for Gujiao main coking coal (A<11, S<1.5%, G<65) [13]. - Analysis: Affected by the parade, safety inspections have been strengthened in some areas, and the recovery of coking coal production is slow. Although hot metal production remains high, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has weakened. Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The steel industry's stable growth policy mainly focuses on ensuring the stable supply of raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract trading at a premium to the warehouse receipt cost, there is a risk of a downward correction in the medium term, but there may be a rebound at key support levels in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese - Price - Futures: The latest prices for different contracts are SM01 at 5744, SM05 at 5782, and SM09 at 5648 [16]. - Spot: The prices of different regions remain stable, such as 5500 for silicon manganese 6517 in Ningxia and 5650 in Guizhou [16]. - Analysis: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have decreased by 0.7 tons to 14.9 tons. Steel mills' restocking will start in September, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement. The October manganese ore quotations from Comilog and Union Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the port ore prices have not declined significantly in the short term, providing some support to the cost side. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][16][17]. - Ferrosilicon - Price - Futures: The latest prices for different contracts are SF01 at 5488, SF05 at 5622, and SF09 at 5352 [16]. - Spot: The prices of different regions remain stable, such as 5350 for ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia and 5300 in Ningxia [16]. - Analysis: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have increased by 830 tons to 62,900 tons. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][16][17].
中辉期货热卷早报-20250903
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-03 01:43