国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Macroeconomic influence is prominent, with an oscillating rebound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: High - level oscillation, narrowing spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The significant decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact [2][12]. - Soybean No.1: Rebound and oscillation, pay attention to the atmosphere in the soybean market [2][12]. - Corn: Oscillating operation [2][15]. - Sugar: Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production [2][19]. - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing of new crops [2][24]. - Eggs: Intense near - end game [2][30]. - Live pigs: Weakening expectations [2][32]. - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [5]. - Macro and Industry News: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) or 30.53% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% [6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Tracking: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3970 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3968 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3050 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and the night - session closing price was 3056 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory also increased [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to China's lack of interest in US new - season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the expected 68% [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [14]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking: The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of C2509 was 2,265 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. The trading volume and positions of the corn market changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn port collection price was 2200 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 16.14 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 4450 tons from the previous 4590 tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,045 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the positions also decreased. The spot price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 20 yuan/ton [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, with only rigid demand from spinning mills. The ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of Egg 2510 was 2,959 yuan/500 kg with a 0.37% increase, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of Egg 2601 was 3,384 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and the trading volume and positions increased [30]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: The Henan spot price was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The closing price of Live Pig 2511 was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed [34]. - Market Logic: At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farms significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and small - scale farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts. The purchase sentiment for piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. The support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 7,970 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of PK511 was 7,790 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the trading volume increased while the positions decreased [38]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian area was around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of large peanuts in Kaifeng area was around 4.0 - 4.15 yuan/jin. The weather cleared, the dryness of peanuts improved, the supply increased, but the inquiry and purchase decreased. New peanuts in Inner Mongolia are expected to be listed sporadically in about a week [39]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [40].