南华金属日报：延续强势，维持看涨-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the metal industry [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues to rise, with external gold reaching new highs. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and bond market risks. The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term pattern is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 closed at $3599.5 per ounce, up 1.51%, hitting a record high; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%. The US August ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs were lower than expected, which was positive for precious metal prices [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 90.5%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15366.48 tons [3] This Week's Focus - This week, there are many important data releases, including the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the "small non - farm" ADP employment data on Thursday, the JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, and the services PMI on Thursday. There are also several Fed officials' speeches and the release of the Fed's Beige Book [4] Nanhua's View - The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term London gold and silver are in a strong pattern. London gold can be expected to reach $3700, and London silver's next target is the 44 - 45 area. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as related spreads and ratios [6] Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest data, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [16][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Lists the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, stock indices, crude oil, copper, and US bond yields [23]