南华油脂油料产业周报：关注巴西开种天气-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].