申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250903

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, linear LL prices were stable for Sinopec and partly stable for PetroChina, while拉丝 PP prices were stable for Sinopec and partly reduced by 30 for PetroChina. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Polyolefin spot prices were generally weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - falling of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7252, 7244, and 7202 respectively, with price drops of - 18, - 32, and - 2, and percentage drops of - 0.25%, - 0.44%, and - 0.03% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6943, 6958, and 6858 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 24, and - 13, and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.34%, and - 0.19% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 224458, 9387, and 1076 respectively, and open interests were 481368, 31597, and 8631 respectively, with open interest changes of 12546, 1855, and - 569 respectively. PP's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 206293, 5697, and 1264 respectively, and open interests were 572749, 43921, and 5848 respectively, with open interest changes of 14143, 734, and - 629 respectively [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 8, 42, and - 50 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6, 72, and - 66. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, 100, and - 85 respectively, compared to previous values of - 17, 111, and - 94 [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2375 yuan/ton, 6645 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - Mid - stream Products: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, with previous price ranges in North China including 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, with a previous price range in South China of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 2), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.59 per barrel, up $1.58 or 2.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.66 - $66.03. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.14 per barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.05 - $69.53 [2].