Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: The stock index is recommended to be moderately long at low levels in the medium and long term, and government bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading, and glass is recommended to be long at low levels [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to be moderately long at low levels, aluminum is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback, nickel is recommended to be on the sidelines or short at high levels, tin is recommended for range trading, and gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][16][18] - Energy and chemicals: PVC and styrene are expected to be weakly volatile, caustic soda and rubber are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage, urea and methanol are expected to be volatile, and polyolefins are expected to be widely volatile [1][20][21][24][26][27][28][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, and jujube are expected to be volatile, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile [1][33][34][35][36] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short at high levels, corn is expected to be widely volatile, soybean meal is expected to have limited upside, and oils are expected to be adjusted at high levels [1][37][39][40][43][46] Core Views - The A - share market has short - term fluctuations but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long during corrections. The bond market lacks short - term positive drivers and is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] - The coal market price is in a stalemate, and the rebar price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. The glass market may have a phased recovery in demand and is recommended to be long at low levels [7][9] - The copper price is expected to be strong in the later stage due to the shift from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum market is recommended to be long at low levels considering the peak season demand. The nickel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term, and the tin market is recommended for range trading [10][11][16] - The PVC market is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. The caustic soda market is expected to have low - long opportunities during the peak season. The styrene market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile [20][23][24][26] - The urea price is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term. The methanol market has a supply - demand balance with increased demand from methanol - to - olefins. The polyolefin market is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28][30] - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face downward pressure in the future. The PTA market is expected to be volatile and is currently in a de - stocking stage. The apple market is expected to be strongly volatile, and the jujube market is expected to be stable [33][34][35][36] - The pig market has limited upside due to large supply, and the egg market is recommended to be short at high levels. The corn market is expected to be range - bound, the soybean meal price has limited upside, and the oil market is expected to be adjusted at high levels [37][39][40][41][43][46] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: On Tuesday, the A - share market was volatile and adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long during corrections [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued to be volatile on Tuesday. In the short term, there is a lack of positive drivers, and the downward space for interest rates is limited. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market price is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is weak, and the number of coal mines on training leave has increased, intensifying market caution [7] - Rebar: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was narrowly volatile. The fundamentals show an increase in demand, production, and inventory. The static valuation is neutral to low. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: The supply is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly in some regions. The demand has improved at the end of the month. Considering the peak season and macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be long at low levels [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level range. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and it is recommended to be moderately long at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is warming up in the peak season. It is recommended to be long at low levels [11] - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of over - supply in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and the prices of precious metals are expected to have support below. It is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support is uncertain, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by rumors and warehouse receipts, the price has fallen. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and there are low - long opportunities [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile [24] - Rubber: The cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [27] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [28] - Polyolefins: The traditional peak season is coming, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the supply pressure is relieved for polyethylene. It is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is improving. It is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase, and the price may face downward pressure. Hedging is recommended [33] - PTA: The device is under maintenance, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is in a de - stocking stage and is expected to be volatile [34] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile [35] - Jujube: The Xinjiang jujube is in the sugar - increasing stage, and the price is expected to be stable [36] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Pigs: The short - term price has a limited upside due to large supply, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high levels and consider arbitrage [37][39] - Eggs: The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to be short at high levels for near - term contracts and wait and see for far - term contracts [39][40] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended for range trading and arbitrage [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level [44][45] - Oils: The short - term price is under pressure from multiple negative factors, but there is also support. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][52]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250903
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-03 02:14