金融期货早评-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]