Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold: The market is strong with London gold price above $3500. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index shows contraction, and domestic gold ETF has capital inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold due to the increased probability of Fed rate - cut and the unchanged de - dollarization logic [2]. - Silver: It follows gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - Copper: The price oscillates strongly. With the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI and the opening of the import window, it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract slightly declined. Supply is stable, demand is recovering, but inventory build - up suppresses the market. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the inventory inflection point [3]. - Alumina: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is high. The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Zinc: The price of the main contract rose. Supply has increased significantly, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - Lead: The price of the main contract slightly declined. Supply is tightening, consumption is flat, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to trade within a range and go long on dips [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract declined. Supply has increased, demand in some industries is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate weakly [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract fell. Supply growth is weakening, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side changes [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price of the main contract declined. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate at a high level [4]. - Tin: The price oscillates. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of future increases. It may follow the macro - trend and oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main contract oscillated strongly. Inventory has increased, and supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - Iron Ore: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply and demand are neutral - strong with a slight weakening at the margin. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - Coking Coal: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is expected to change, and demand has a game. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [8]. - Corn: The 2511 contract continued to rebound. Wheat substitution, increased supply, and lower costs suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate weakly [8]. - Sugar: The 01 contract price fell. International and domestic factors affect the market. It is recommended to short on the futures market and sell call options [8]. - Cotton: The overnight US cotton price oscillated and fell. International and domestic market conditions are different. It is recommended to go long on dips within the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [8]. - Palm Oil: The price rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is increasing. It is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term and pay attention to production and policies [8]. - Eggs: The 2510 contract performed weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate [8]. - Pigs: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the state has started a purchase and storage plan. It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price may stop falling and stabilize [9]. - Apples: The main contract price rose slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but there are expectations for late - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see as the market oscillates [9]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. Short - term oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [10]. - Rubber: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply prices are rising, inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - PP: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [11]. - Crude Oil: The price rose, but the Brent spread weakened. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a large expected surplus in Q4. It is recommended to short on rallies [11]. - Styrene: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is normal. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or short on styrene profit when the price rebounds [11].
商品期货早班车-20250903
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-03 02:30