LPG：宏观风险加剧，原油成本上行，丙烯：现货价格支撑仍在，关注回落风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, macro risks are intensifying, and crude oil costs are rising [1] - For propylene, the spot price support remains, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2510 closed at 4,421 yesterday with a 0.66% increase and 4,436 in the night session with a 0.34% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,342 yesterday with a 0.79% increase and 4,361 in the night session with a 0.44% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,405 yesterday with a -0.28% decrease and 6,425 in the night session with a 0.31% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,432 yesterday with a -0.23% decrease and 6,450 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest: PG2510 had a trading volume of 81,890 yesterday, a decrease of 3,573 from the previous day, and an open interest of 74,648, a decrease of 3,176 from the previous day; PG2511 had a trading volume of 17,534 yesterday, a decrease of 4,790 from the previous day, and an open interest of 36,095, an increase of 993 from the previous day; PL2601 had a trading volume of 4,421 yesterday, a decrease of 712 from the previous day, and an open interest of 8,146, an increase of 1,311 from the previous day; PL2602 had a trading volume of 34 yesterday, a decrease of 42 from the previous day, and an open interest of 862, an increase of 13 from the previous day [1] - LPG Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 39 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 79 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 230 yesterday, compared to 192 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 170 yesterday, compared to 127 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 70 yesterday, compared to 52 the previous day [1] - LPG Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, down from 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged from the previous level; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, up from 49.0% [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market News - On September 2, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 540 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 514 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 551 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Additionally, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [7] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not provided in the text [8]