Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].
棉花：注意新作上市情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-03 02:59