棕榈油：宏观影响凸显，震荡反弹，豆油：高位震荡，豆棕走缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows prominent macro - impact, with an oscillating rebound; soybean oil experiences high - level oscillation, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - Palm oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, closing price (night session) is 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase; trading volume is 274 lots with an increase of 19 lots, and open interest is 1,883 lots with a decrease of 257 lots [2] - Soybean oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, closing price (night session) is 8,394 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease; trading volume is 406 lots with a decrease of 633 lots, and open interest is 3,467 lots with a decrease of 400 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 9,950 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, closing price (night session) is 9,798 yuan/ton with a 1.53% decrease; trading volume is 404 lots with a decrease of 240 lots, and open interest is 5,219 lots with a decrease of 370 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: closing price is 4,474 ringgit/ton with a 2.22% increase, closing price (night session) is 4,489 ringgit/ton with a 0.29% increase [2] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: closing price is 52.50 cents/pound with a 0.69% increase [2] Spot - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price is 9,330 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [2] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price is 8,680 yuan/ton with no price change [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price is 9,760 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price (continuous contract): 1,095 dollars/ton with no price change [2] Basis - Palm oil basis in Guangdong: - 50 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil basis in Guangdong: 258 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi: - 190 yuan/ton [2] Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 344 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 417 yuan/ton) [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,066 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 1,036 yuan/ton) [2] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 42 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 54 yuan/ton) [2] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 66 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 42 yuan/ton) [2] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 184 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 129 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From August 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.65% month - on - month [3] - AmSpec: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31, 2025, was 1,341,990 tons, a 15.37% increase compared with the same period last month [4] - SGS: It is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31, 2025, was 1,170,043 tons, a 30.53% increase compared with the same period last month [5] - India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months; soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, the lowest level in six months; sunflower oil imports increased by 27% month - on - month to 255,000 tons, the highest level in seven months; total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% month - on - month to 1.6 million tons, the highest level in 13 months [5] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, 69% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year; the pod - setting rate was 94%, 89% in the previous week, 93% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 94%; the defoliation rate was 11%, 4% in the previous week, 12% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 10% [5] - USDA export inspection report: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, in line with expectations; the soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. As of now in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period last year [6] - USDA monthly crushing: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June, and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [6] - IMEA: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 25 - 29, 2025, was 441.19 reais/ton, compared with 387.05 reais/ton in the previous week. The soybean meal price in this state was 1,562.90 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,358.81 reais/ton [6] - As of August 31, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 420,000 tons, compared with 580,000 tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 2.29 million tons, compared with 2.42 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 3.12 million tons, compared with 3.25 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 440,000 tons, compared with 860,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing activities. As of September 1, 2025, 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed crops have been sown, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area, almost the same as the sown area in the same period last year [7] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has signed a bill imposing a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The export tax will last until January 1, 2030, and then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. The new regulation will take effect on the second day after the official announcement of the decree [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [8]