工业硅：情绪扰动增多，关注仓单注册情况，多晶硅：短期波动明显放大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is experiencing increased fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts. The short - term fluctuations in the polysilicon market have significantly amplified [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,470 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan compared to T - 1, 45 yuan compared to T - 5, and 30 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 345,613 lots, a decrease of 14,243 lots compared to T - 1, 104,677 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 120,436 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 281,480 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots compared to T - 1, 359 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 87,140 lots compared to T - 22. For PS2511, the closing price was 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 410 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 890 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 530,778 lots, a decrease of 5,320 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 264,958 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 145,855 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 8,377 lots compared to T - 5 [1] - Basis Data: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +605 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton compared to T - 1, - 280 yuan/ton compared to T - 5, and - 595 yuan/ton compared to T - 22. The spot premium or discount of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) was - 875 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton compared to T - 1, 1,110 yuan/ton compared to T - 5, and 2,455 yuan/ton compared to T - 22 [1] - Price Data: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 600 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 650 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type recycled material was 51500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan compared to T - 1, 2500 yuan compared to T - 5, and 4500 yuan compared to T - 22 [1] - Profit Data: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new - standard 553) was - 2831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to T - 1, 410 yuan compared to T - 5, and 540 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.6 yuan compared to T - 1, 1.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1] - Inventory Data: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 17.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory was 21.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 1.6 million tons compared to T - 22 [1] - Raw Material Cost Data: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [1] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The photovoltaic module procurement project of the 2GW composite photovoltaic base project of China Aneng First Bureau's Guoneng Ling - Shao DC - supporting Lingwu has changed. The tender scale has been reduced from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model has been changed. The original tender had a tax - included tender control price of 132 million yuan, with a tax rate of 13%, equivalent to 0.66 yuan per watt, while the revised tender has no tender control price [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The range of trend intensity values is in the interval [- 2,2], with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]