瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 2, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5, down 0.80%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - level shows that the proportion of electricity in China's terminal energy consumption has reached 30%, significantly higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory has increased, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 2, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5, down 0.44%. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the first - round price cut has been proposed in some regions. From the macro - level, relevant departments will formulate a series of supporting documents around the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action". Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. With high pig iron production, the coal mine inventory pressure has disappeared, and the total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1112.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1596.50 yuan/ton, up 2.00 [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 900128.00 lots, down 20101.00; the J futures contract position was 51244.00 lots, down 1062.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 130501.00 lots, up 4848.00; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4520.00 lots, up 607.00 [2]. - The JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 47.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 92.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 900.00, up 600.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1060.00, up 90.00 [2]. - The JM main contract basis was 187.50 yuan/ton, up 6.00; the J main contract basis was 178.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 916.00 yuan/ton, down 64.00; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.00 million tons, up 0.30; the refined coal inventory was 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60, down 2.60 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 455.41 million tons, up 4.96; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.66 million tons, up 0.04 [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, down 5.14; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, up 0.94 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 811.85 million tons, down 0.46; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610.07 million tons, up 0.48 [2]. - The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 13.25 days, up 0.18; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 10.78 days, up 0.02 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 [2]. - The output of coking coal was 3880.62 million tons, down 183.76; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, down 1.06 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 55.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00; the output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.00%, down 0.27 [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - New Zealand will relax the ban on foreigners buying houses, allowing wealthy investment immigrants with "golden visas" to buy luxury houses worth at least 5 million New Zealand dollars [2]. - The Central Rural Work Leading Group Office will strengthen the comprehensive management of high bride prices in rural areas [2]. - Relevant departments will formulate a series of supporting documents around the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action" [2]. - French business leaders warn that France faces a real "recession risk" [2].