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20250903申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250903
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-09-03 03:04

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of positive and negative factors. The supply of concentrates is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power industry, PV installation, auto production and sales show positive growth, while the growth of home appliance output slows and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous increase in smelting output. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors such as inventory increase and mixed downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - Market Performance: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 9,981 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 69.58 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 158,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry maintains positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,866 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 20.44 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 55,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 625 tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising overall, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets increased. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 5.70 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 481,050 tons with no daily change [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 122,220 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,140 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 15,232 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 185.03 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 209,844 tons, with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 43.10 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 259,550 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 273,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,110 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 34,735 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 140.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 2,155 tons, with a daily increase of 145 tons [2].