生猪：预期转弱

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the pig industry has weakened [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - farming groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to enter the 11 - 1 inverse spread. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton [3] - Futures Prices: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,595 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2601 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2603 contract is 13,095 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For the pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 26,042 lots, a decrease of 4,481 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,388 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 11,472 lots, a decrease of 2,658 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,756 lots, an increase of 278 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2603 contract, the trading volume is 2,845 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,584 lots, an increase of 373 lots from the previous day [3] - Price Spreads: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 585 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is 320 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 1,085 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 265 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of pigs is 765 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]