甲醇：短期有反弹，中期震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook. The short - term view is that methanol may have a rebound, and the medium - term outlook is a震荡格局 (oscillating pattern). [5] 2. Report's Core View - The methanol market shows a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. Short - term is influenced by macro events like the September 3rd parade, while medium - term the market will return to fundamental trading logic. The short - term fundamental contradictions are significant, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,378 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The trading volume was 466,676 lots, a decrease of 139,335 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The basis was - 155, down 19, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 160, down 1. [2] - Spot Market: The Jiangsu ex - tank price dropped from 2,250 yuan/ton to 0; the Inner Mongolia price remained at 2,030 yuan/ton; the Shaanbei price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,020 yuan/ton; the Shandong price stayed at 2,250 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,143.94, down 0.72. The Taicang spot price was 2,235, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2,042.5, down 2.5. Among 20 monitored cities, 5 saw price drops of 2.5 - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed a differentiated performance, with futures narrowly consolidating, ports having slight increases, and some inland areas with price cuts. [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short - term, methanol may follow the macro trend and oscillate strongly due to the September 3rd parade event. In the medium - term, it will return to fundamental trading logic as the equity market enters an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. Overall, it has a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. [4][5]