铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌偏强整理-20250903

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices will maintain range - bound consolidation [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, due to the low LME zinc inventory overseas, the LME 0 - 3 shifting to a back structure, and high capital concentration, LME zinc has been rising. In the short term, Shanghai zinc may show a strong - side consolidation under the influence of external markets and macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Data - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, down 0.47%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 5.94% to 42,223 hands, and the open interest increased by 0.95% to 51,504 hands [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,325 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,865.5 dollars/ton, up 1.15%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.03% to 125,688 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7.34% to 107,662 hands [1]. Market News - Lead: A small - and - medium - sized lead - zinc mine project in Qinghai completed its 10 - day autumn maintenance, and production resumed in August. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.47 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 686 hands to 160,389 hands [1]. - Zinc: Since September 1st, many galvanized sheet plants in Hebei have been on holiday due to the approaching National Day, and the resumption time is undetermined. Some plants in other regions have chosen to conduct maintenance or stop production due to vehicle transportation restrictions. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 14.98 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,018 hands to 192,517 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Lead: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the operating rate has declined slightly. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - Zinc: Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 93.75 dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. However, due to the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, some downstream industries' operating rates have weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1].