Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 03:14Report Overview - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated September 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum industry presents different trends across various segments. Alumina may see a small increase in supply and stable demand, with an expected improvement as the traditional peak season approaches. Shanghai aluminum is likely to have a stable and slightly increasing supply and gradually rising demand, with a positive industry outlook. Cast aluminum may experience a slight reduction in supply and rising demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,022 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of alumina is -23 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina both decreased [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Nonferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Nonferrous is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy weakened, while that of electrolytic aluminum strengthened [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina decreased by 10.82 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the operating rate is 97.78%, up 0.10%. The production of aluminum products is 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The production of aluminum alloy is 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 6.12%, up 0.10%; for 40 days is 7.89%, down 0.07%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the call - put ratio increased [2] 3.7 Industry News - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high; the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy was implemented; the ECB said the inflation target was achieved; new energy vehicle brands had good August sales; China announced plans at the SCO summit [2] 3.8 Alumina View - The alumina main contract shows a volatile trend with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite is expected to decline, but domestic alumina supply may increase slightly and stably due to sufficient port inventories and good smelter profits. Demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2] 3.9 Shanghai Aluminum View - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rebounded slightly with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit is good. The domestic supply is expected to increase slightly and stably, and demand is expected to rise. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View - The cast aluminum main contract first rose and then fell with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. High raw material costs support prices but erode profits, leading to potential production cuts. Demand is expected to pick up with the peak season and government subsidies. It is recommended to short at high levels with a light position [2]