沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The Fed's expected rate cut in September, the shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the expected accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper inventories due to continuous imported copper arrivals may lead to strong fluctuations in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 2, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,660 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,677 lots, a decrease of 16,804 lots; the open interest was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots; the inventory was 19,501 tons, a decrease of 699 tons [2]. - The price of SMN 1 computer copper + 12 was 80,160 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 500 yuan, an increase of 380 yuan [2]. - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic) was 9,980.5 US dollars, up 96.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 158,775 tons [2]. - The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.641 US dollars, up 0.10 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 281,075 tons, an increase of 5,849 tons [2]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a month - on - month decline of 14.20%; the cumulative production was 136.434 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.34%. In September 2025, the total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 27.07 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.28% [2]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will face a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [2]. - After the Shanghe Summit and approaching the end of the military parade, downstream enterprises of refined copper rods in North China will gradually resume normal production [2]. Investment Strategy - The restriction on the export of high - quality European scrap copper, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the import and production of domestic scrap copper in September. The planned maintenance of domestic smelters in September may reduce the production and import of refined copper. New domestic production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the future, which may increase the production of electrolytic copper in September. The import window for electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume and inventory [3].